New York House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul D. Tonko a 50% chance of winning the New York House 2014 primary. Paul D. Tonko won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Paul D. Tonko — 50% model odds (won)
2. Paul D. Tonko — 50% model odds
3. Paul D. Tonko — 0% model odds
4. James M. Fischer — 0% model odds
5. James M. Fischer — 0% model odds
6. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts