New Hampshire House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carol Shea-Porter a 56% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2014 primary. Frank C. Guinta won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Carol Shea-Porter — 56% model odds
2. Frank C. Guinta — 44% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts