North Carolina Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Thom Tillis a 56% chance of winning the North Carolina Senate 2014 primary. Thom Tillis won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Thom Tillis — 56% model odds (won)
  2. Kay Hagan — 44% model odds
  3. Sean Haugh — 0% model odds
  4. Scattered — 0% model odds
  5. John Rhodes — 0% model odds
  6. David Waddell — 0% model odds
  7. Barry Gurney — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts