North Carolina House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Vince Coakley a 26% chance of winning the North Carolina House 2014 primary. Alma Adams won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Vince Coakley — 26% model odds
2. Vince Coakley — 26% model odds
3. Alma Adams — 24% model odds (won)
4. Alma Adams — 24% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts