Michigan House 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Paul Clements a 70% chance of winning the Michigan House 2014 primary. Fred Upton won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Paul Clements — 70% model odds
2. Fred Upton — 15% model odds (won)
3. John M. Lawrence — 15% model odds
4. Erwin J. Hass — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts