Arkansas Senate 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Cotton a 63% chance of winning the Arkansas Senate 2014 primary. Tom Cotton won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tom Cotton — 63% model odds (won)
  2. Mark H. Swaney — 37% model odds
  3. Mark Pryor — 0% model odds
  4. Nathan Lafrance — 0% model odds
  5. Scott Pfleegor — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts