Washington Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Raul Garcia a 44% chance of winning the Washington Senate 2024 primary. Raul Garcia won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Raul Garcia — 44% model odds (won)
  2. Mel Ram — 19% model odds
  3. Goodspaceguy — 19% model odds
  4. Isaac Holyk — 9% model odds
  5. Scott Nazarino — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts