Vermont Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bernie Sanders a 79% chance of winning the Vermont Senate 2024 primary. Bernie Sanders won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Bernie Sanders — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Gerald Malloy — 21% model odds
  3. Steve Berry — 0% model odds
  4. Matt Hill — 0% model odds
  5. Justin Schoville — 0% model odds
  6. Mark Stewart Greenstein — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts