Virginia Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Hung Cao an 85% chance of winning the Virginia Senate 2024 primary. Hung Cao won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Hung Cao — 85% model odds (won)
2. Scott Parkinson — 4% model odds
3. Jonathan Emord — 4% model odds
4. Chuck Smith — 3% model odds
5. Eddie Garcia — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts