Utah Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John Curtis an 18% chance of winning the Utah Senate 2024 primary. Trent Staggs won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. John Curtis — 18% model odds
  2. Brad Wilson — 16% model odds
  3. Chandler Tanner — 9% model odds
  4. Josh Randall — 9% model odds
  5. Brian Jenkins — 9% model odds
  6. Jeremy Friedbaum — 9% model odds
  7. Jason Walton — 8% model odds
  8. Trent Staggs — 7% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts