Utah Governor 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Spencer Cox/Deidre Henderson a 67% chance of winning the Utah Governor 2024 primary. Phil Lyman/Layne Bangerter won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Spencer Cox/Deidre Henderson — 67% model odds
  2. Phil Lyman/Layne Bangerter — 7% model odds (won)
  3. Carson Jorgensen/Corrine Johnson — 7% model odds
  4. Scott Robbins — 7% model odds
  5. Sylvia Miera-Fisk — 7% model odds
  6. Inactive Ballots — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts