Texas Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ted Cruz an 85% chance of winning the Texas Senate 2024 primary. Ted Cruz won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ted Cruz — 85% model odds (won)
  2. Holland Gibson — 7% model odds
  3. Rufus Lopez — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts