Pennsylvania Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bob Casey Jr. an 89% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Senate 2024 primary. Dave Mccormick won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Bob Casey Jr. — 89% model odds
  2. Dave Mccormick — 11% model odds (won)
  3. John Thomas — 0% model odds
  4. Leila Hazou — 0% model odds
  5. Marty Selker — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts