Ohio Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bernie Moreno a 50% chance of winning the Ohio Senate 2024 primary. Bernie Moreno won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Bernie Moreno — 50% model odds (won)
  2. Matt Dolan — 28% model odds
  3. Frank Larose — 22% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts