New York Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kirsten Gillibrand a 100% chance of winning the New York Senate 2024 primary. Kirsten Gillibrand won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Kirsten Gillibrand — 100% model odds
  2. Kirsten Gillibrand — 0% model odds
  3. Kirsten Gillibrand — 0% model odds (won)
  4. Mike Sapraicone — 0% model odds
  5. Mike Sapraicone — 0% model odds
  6. Mike Sapraicone — 0% model odds
  7. Diane Sare — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts