Montana Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tim Sheehy a 48% chance of winning the Montana Senate 2024 primary. Tim Sheehy won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Tim Sheehy — 48% model odds (won)
  2. Charles Walkingchild Sr. — 32% model odds
  3. Brad Johnson — 20% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts