Montana Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jon Tester a 56% chance of winning the Montana Senate 2024 primary. Tim Sheehy won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jon Tester — 56% model odds
  2. Tim Sheehy — 44% model odds (won)
  3. Sid Daoud — 0% model odds
  4. Robert Barb — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts