Missouri Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Hawley a 66% chance of winning the Missouri Senate 2024 primary. Josh Hawley won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Josh Hawley — 66% model odds (won)
  2. Lucas Kunce — 31% model odds
  3. Jared Young — 4% model odds
  4. W.C. Young — 0% model odds
  5. Nathan Kline — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts