Michigan Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elissa Slotkin a 96% chance of winning the Michigan Senate 2024 primary. Elissa Slotkin won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Elissa Slotkin — 96% model odds (won)
  2. Hill Harper — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts