Michigan Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Elissa Slotkin an 89% chance of winning the Michigan Senate 2024 primary. Elissa Slotkin won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Elissa Slotkin — 89% model odds (won)
  2. Mike Rogers — 11% model odds
  3. Joseph Solis-Mullen — 0% model odds
  4. Douglas Marsh — 0% model odds
  5. Dave Stein — 0% model odds
  6. Doug Dern — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts