Maryland Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David Trone a 52% chance of winning the Maryland Senate 2024 primary. Angela Alsobrooks won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. David Trone — 52% model odds
  2. Angela Alsobrooks — 7% model odds (won)
  3. Joseph Perez — 5% model odds
  4. Michael Cobb — 5% model odds
  5. Brian Frydenborg — 5% model odds
  6. Scottie Griffin — 5% model odds
  7. Marcellus Crews — 5% model odds
  8. Andrew Wildman — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts