Hawaii Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mazie Hirono a 92% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2024 primary. Mazie Hirono won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mazie Hirono — 92% model odds (won)
  2. Clyde Lewman — 5% model odds
  3. Ron Curtis — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts