Hawaii Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mazie Hirono a 100% chance of winning the Hawaii Senate 2024 primary. Mazie Hirono won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mazie Hirono — 100% model odds (won)
  2. Bob Mcdermott — 0% model odds
  3. Shelby Billionaire — 0% model odds
  4. Emma Pohlman — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts