Connecticut Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chris Murphy an 83% chance of winning the Connecticut Senate 2024 primary. Chris Murphy won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Chris Murphy — 83% model odds
  2. Matthew Corey — 17% model odds
  3. Chris Murphy — 0% model odds
  4. Chris Murphy — 0% model odds (won)
  5. Robert F. Hyde — 0% model odds
  6. Justin Paglino — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts