Arizona Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ruben Gallego a 63% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2024 primary. Ruben Gallego won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Ruben Gallego — 63% model odds (won)
  2. Kari Lake — 37% model odds
  3. Eduardo Heredia Quintana — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts