Arizona Senate 2024 — Model Retrospective
The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ruben Gallego a 63% chance of winning the Arizona Senate 2024 primary. Ruben Gallego won, matching the model's top pick.
- Ruben Gallego — 63% model odds (won)
- Kari Lake — 37% model odds
- Eduardo Heredia Quintana — 0% model odds