Texas Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Beto O'Rourke a 57% chance of winning the Texas Governor 2022 primary. Greg Abbott won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Beto O'Rourke — 57% model odds
  2. Greg Abbott — 43% model odds (won)
  3. Mark Tippetts — 0% model odds
  4. Delilah Barrios — 0% model odds
  5. Jacqueline Abernathy — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts