New Mexico Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michelle Lujan Grishamhowie Morales an 82% chance of winning the New Mexico Governor 2022 primary. Michelle Lujan Grishamhowie Morales won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Michelle Lujan Grishamhowie Morales — 82% model odds (won)
  2. Mark Ronchettiant Thornton — 18% model odds
  3. Jr. Karen Bedonieefren Gallardo — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts