Maryland Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Dan Cox a 17% chance of winning the Maryland Governor 2022 primary. Wes Moore won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Dan Cox — 17% model odds
2. Wes Moore — 17% model odds (won)
3. David Lashar — 17% model odds
4. Nancy Wallace — 17% model odds
5. David Harding — 17% model odds
6. Source: Maryland State Board Of Elections — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts