Hawaii Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Greensylvia Luke a 95% chance of winning the Hawaii Governor 2022 primary. Josh Greensylvia Luke won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Josh Greensylvia Luke — 95% model odds (won)
  2. Duke Aionaseaula Tupa'I Jr. — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts