Connecticut Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ned Lamont a 65% chance of winning the Connecticut Governor 2022 primary. Ned Lamont won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Ned Lamont — 65% model odds
2. Ned Lamont — 18% model odds (won)
3. Bob Stefanowski — 18% model odds
4. Ned Lamont — 0% model odds
5. Ned Lamont — 0% model odds
6. Robert Hotaling — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts