California Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gavin Newsom a 56% chance of winning the California Governor 2022 primary. Gavin Newsom won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Gavin Newsom — 56% model odds (won)
  2. Joel Ventresca — 15% model odds
  3. Armando Perez-Serrato — 15% model odds
  4. Anthony Fanara — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts