Arizona Governor 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Katie Hobbs a 33% chance of winning the Arizona Governor 2022 primary. Katie Hobbs won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Katie Hobbs — 33% model odds (won)
  2. Marco A. López Jr. — 33% model odds
  3. Aaron Lieberman (Withdrawn) — 33% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts