South Dakota Governor 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kristi Noem a 50% chance of winning the South Dakota Governor 2018 primary. Kristi Noem won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Kristi Noem — 50% model odds (won)
2. Marty Jackley — 50% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts