Pennsylvania Governor 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Wolf a 44% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Governor 2018 primary. Tom Wolf won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Wolf — 44% model odds (won)
2. Mike Stack — 44% model odds
3. John Fetterman — 3% model odds
4. Nina Ahmad — 3% model odds
5. Kathi Cozzone — 3% model odds
6. Ray Sosa — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts