Pennsylvania Governor 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Wolfjohn Fetterman an 89% chance of winning the Pennsylvania Governor 2018 primary. Tom Wolfjohn Fetterman won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tom Wolfjohn Fetterman — 89% model odds (won)
2. Scott Wagner Jeff Bartos — 11% model odds
3. Ken Krawchuk Kathleen Smith — 0% model odds
4. Paul Glover Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts