Alaska Governor 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mike Dunleavy a 90% chance of winning the Alaska Governor 2018 primary. Mike Dunleavy won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Mike Dunleavy — 90% model odds (won)
2. Bill Walker (Incumbent; Withdrawn) — 5% model odds
3. William Toien — 5% model odds
4. Mark Begich — 0% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts