California Governor 2014 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tim Donnelly a 17% chance of winning the California Governor 2014 primary. Neel Kashkari won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Tim Donnelly — 17% model odds
2. Glenn Champ — 17% model odds
3. Alma Marie Winston — 17% model odds
4. Richard William Aguirre — 17% model odds
5. Neel Kashkari — 16% model odds (won)
6. Andrew Blount — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts