Wisconsin Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 33% chance of winning the Wisconsin Senate 2022 primary. Scattered won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Scattered — 33% model odds
2. Adam Paul — 33% model odds
3. Scattered — 33% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts