Wisconsin Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mandela Barnes a 69% chance of winning the Wisconsin Senate 2022 primary. Mandela Barnes won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mandela Barnes — 69% model odds (won)
  2. Alex Lasry — 4% model odds
  3. Sarah Godlewski — 4% model odds
  4. Tom Nelson — 4% model odds
  5. Steven Olikara — 4% model odds
  6. Darrell Williams — 4% model odds
  7. Kou C. Lee — 4% model odds
  8. Peter Peckarsky — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts