Washington Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tiffany Smiley a 20% chance of winning the Washington Senate 2022 primary. Tiffany Smiley won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tiffany Smiley — 20% model odds (won)
2. Leon Lawson — 20% model odds (won)
3. John Guenther — 20% model odds
4. Dave Saulibio — 20% model odds
5. Bill Hirt — 20% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts