Washington Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Naz Paul a 25% chance of winning the Washington Senate 2022 primary. Naz Paul won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Naz Paul — 25% model odds (won)
  2. Charlie Jackson — 25% model odds (won)
  3. Jon Butler — 25% model odds
  4. Thor Amundson — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts