Washington House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Larkin a 34% chance of winning the Washington House 2022 primary. Matt Larkin won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Matt Larkin — 34% model odds (won)
2. Reagan Dunn — 32% model odds (won)
3. Scott Stephenson — 15% model odds
4. Jesse Jensen — 9% model odds
5. Dave Chapman — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts