Vermont Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Gerald Malloy a 14% chance of winning the Vermont Senate 2022 primary. Gerald Malloy won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Gerald Malloy — 14% model odds (won)
  2. Christina Nolan — 14% model odds
  3. Myers Mermel — 14% model odds
  4. Scattered — 14% model odds
  5. Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout — 14% model odds
  6. Martha Abbott — 14% model odds
  7. Scattered — 14% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts