Vermont Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Peter Welch a 25% chance of winning the Vermont Senate 2022 primary. Peter Welch won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Peter Welch — 25% model odds (won)
2. Isaac Evans-Frantz — 25% model odds
3. Niki Thran — 25% model odds
4. Scattered — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts