Virginia House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Merritt D. Hale a 50% chance of winning the Virginia House 2022 primary. Ben L. Cline won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Merritt D. Hale — 50% model odds
2. Ben L. Cline — 50% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts