Utah Senate 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Laird Fetzer Hamblin a 24% chance of winning the Utah Senate 2022 primary. Mike Lee won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Laird Fetzer Hamblin — 24% model odds
  2. Mike Lee — 22% model odds (won)
  3. Becky Edwards — 11% model odds
  4. Ally Isom — 11% model odds
  5. Jeremy Friedbaum — 11% model odds
  6. Evan Barlow — 11% model odds
  7. Loy Brunson — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts