Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mayra Flores a 79% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Mayra Flores won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mayra Flores — 79% model odds (won)
  2. Frank Mccaffrey — 7% model odds
  3. Gregory Scott, Jr. Kunkle — 7% model odds
  4. Juana Cantu-Cabrera — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts