Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Brad Namdar a 59% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Antonio Swad won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Brad Namdar — 59% model odds
  2. Darrell Day — 10% model odds
  3. Ee Okpa — 10% model odds
  4. Antonio Swad — 7% model odds (won)
  5. Justin Webb — 7% model odds
  6. Nathan Davis — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts