Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave James Rodgers a 17% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. James "J. Frank" Harris won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. James Rodgers — 17% model odds
  2. James "J. Frank" Harris — 17% model odds (won)
  3. Kelvin Goodwin-Castillo — 17% model odds
  4. Lizbeth Diaz — 17% model odds
  5. Dakinya "Kinya" Jefferson — 17% model odds
  6. Angeigh J. Roc' Ellerpitts — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts