Texas House 2022 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Julio Garza a 69% chance of winning the Texas House 2022 primary. Robert Schafranek won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Julio Garza — 69% model odds
  2. Robert Schafranek — 31% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts